Untangling complex syste.., p.4
Untangling Complex Systems, page 4
means “fond of nature.” Philo-physicists have been gifted with unquenchable epistemic curiosity
about nature. They have discovered many natural wonders, unveiled fundamental natural laws,
and relentlessly extended human knowledge. The acquisition of new knowledge about nature has
often promoted technological developments. Technology is the ensemble of methods and tools
helpful to fulfill the natural human will of improving our psycho-physical well-being by solving
practical problems. Between science and technology, there exists a reciprocal positive feedback
action1 (see Figure 1.2). In fact, not only does scientific knowledge promotes technological development, but any new technical achievement allows for more time and/or new tools, i.e., “exo-somatic
facilities,” to deepen our exploration of nature.
1 Feedback occurs when the output of an action becomes the input of another.
1
2
Untangling Complex Systems
FIGURE 1.1 Three examples of natural wonders.
Scientific
knowledge
Technology
Epistemic
Will of improving
curiosity
our well-being
FIGURE 1.2 Reciprocal positive feedback action between Science and Technology. Science is fed mainly by
epistemic curiosity, whereas technology by the dream of improving our welfare.
The journey to discovering the secrets of nature, made by humanity, has been punctuated by
two revolutionary intellectual events: (1) the birth of philosophy in the ancient Greek colonies, dur-
ing the sixth century BC, and (2) the use of the experimental method for inquiring about nature,
proposed by Galileo Galilei and finalized by Isaac Newton in the seventeenth century AD. These
two intellectual revolutions have been two “gateway events” (to use a term coined by Nobel prize
Murray Gell-Mann2). In fact, they have induced profound and fundamental changes in the human
methodology of gaining insights about nature. The two mentioned “gateway events” have been
cultural facts, and as such, they have not been abrupt, but gradual outcomes of slow evolution-
ary intellectual processes. Once across these gateways, scientific inquiry has never been the same
again. These two events split out the scientific journey into three main stages (see Figure 1.3). The first stage is the period that preceded the birth of philosophy. It can be named as the “Practical
2 Murray Gell-Mann (1994) coined the term “gateway event” to indicate a change opening up a new kind of a phase space with a huge increase in kinds and levels of complexity in system’s dynamics. Once through the gateway, life is never
the same again. For example, new technology is often an economic gateway event because it expands the production
possibilities frontier.
Introduction
3
Sixth century BC
Phylosophical
The first philosophers
period
in Greece and its colonies
Practical
period
1 × 103 BC
Stone
Iron age
age
~3 × 106 BC
3 × 103 BC
Seventeenth century AD
Bronze
G. Galilei
age
and I. Newton
Twenty-first century AD
Experimental
Computational
period
period
FIGURE 1.3 The humankind journey to discovering the secrets of nature represented as a spiral
partitioned in four periods. First, the “Practical Period” started with the appearance of humankind on earth,
about 3 million years ago. Then, the birth of philosophy in sixth century BC initiated the “Philosophical
Period.” The formulation of the experimental method began the “Experimental Period” in the seventeenth
century AD. Finally, in the twenty-first century, we are waiting for the next gateway event to enter the
“Computational Period” and deeply understand Complexity.
Period” because humans, spurred by their necessities, were particularly ingenious in making arti-
facts for solving practical problems. Unconsciously, they obtained the first important achievements
in the technological development. The second stage is named as the “Philosophical Period,” because
authentic Philo-physicists started to investigate nature and human thoughts by using philosophical
reasoning. The rigorous and systematic use of experiments as a method of inquiry into nature began
only in the seventeenth century AD, opening a new stage that we can name as the “Experimental
Period.” We are still living it. Three hundred years of productive scientific investigation and aston-
ishing technological development have elapsed. Nevertheless, we still experience strong limita-
tions on our attempts to exhaustively describe systems, such as the climate and the geology of our
planet; the living beings; the human brain; the human immune system; the ecosystems on earth;
the human societies and the global economy. These are called Complex Systems. We are aware
that the traditional scientific methodologies, the available theories, and computational tools are not
enough to deeply understand and predict the behavior of Complex Systems. Therefore, we expect
that more efficient algorithms, brand-new computing machines, and probably new methodologies
and theories are needed. Do we need to study Complex Systems? Of course, yes. In fact, if we suc-
ceed to comprehend Complex Systems, we will surely possess new strategies and effective tools to
tackle the Natural Complexity Challenges. The Natural Complexity Challenges are: (1) predicting
catastrophic events on our planet (like earthquakes or volcanic eruptions) to save lives; (2) defeat-
ing diseases that are still incurable (such as glioblastoma, diabetes, HIV, etc.); (3) protecting our
environment and ecosystems from climate change and the risk of shrinking biodiversity; (4) guar-
anteeing worldwide sustainable economic growth, primarily by focusing on the energy issue; and
(5) ensuring stability in our societies.
After reading this book, it will be evident that for the comprehension of Complex Systems we
probably need a new intellectual gateway event. This third gateway event will spark a new stage in
the scientific journey to discovering the secrets of nature. It seems plausible that a proper name for
the expected next and fourth stage is “Computational period” (see Figure 1.3). In fact, whenever we
4
Untangling Complex Systems
face the description of Complex Systems, or we tackle the Natural Complexity Challenges, we need
to collect and process a vast amount of data, the so-called Big Data (Marx 2013).
In the next three paragraphs of this chapter, I present just a few relevant historical events and
achievements in the first three stages of that exciting experience, which is the human journey to
discovering the secrets of nature. Then, I outline what we expect in the fourth stage.
1.1.1 The “PracTical Period”
The first stage of the scientific journey begun, of course, with the appearance of humankind on
earth, a few millions of years ago. The early humans had to face many practical problems to sur-
vive, such as those of retrieving food supplies, defending themselves in dangerous situations, and
resting in safe shelters. It is reasonable to think that, in the beginning, our ancestors used to pick
fruit and vegetables for eating and collect available tools made of stones, wood, leaves, bones, and
leather for hunting and making shelters and clothing. Then, humankind took a giant step in the
development of Physical Technologies by making artifacts. Physical Technologies are the methods
and tools for transforming matter, energy, and information from one state into another for specific
goals (Beinhocker 2007). Direct evidence of first artifacts is found in the archeological records.
The earliest appearances of toolmaking are the crude, flaked-stone hand axes found in Africa and
date back to, at least, 3.3 million years ago (Hovers 2015). Over time, tools became lighter, smaller
and more heavily modified, suggesting a trend towards greater technological sophistication (Shea
2011). The technical improvements were promoted by careful observation of the surrounding envi-
ronment; processes of trial and error; serendipity3 and formulation of inductive rules of thumb.
Every breakthrough was presumably transmitted to children and peers, at first by grunts and body
language and then by formulating spoken languages. The invention of languages promoted the
development of Social Technologies that are the methods and tools for organizing people in pursuit
of goals (Beinhocker 2007). In fact, without language, the spread of knowledge and instructions is
highly inefficient. Language makes it easier for people to live in large groups, helps the build-up
of complex belief systems, establishes laws and theories over several generations (Szathmáry and
Számadó 2008). It was crucial to teach how to spark a fire by friction of adequately selected materi-
als, grow a plant from a seed, or establish symbiotic relationships with dogs, sheep, goats, and other
animals. The domestication of plants and animals triggered the first agricultural revolution during
the Neolithic period of the Stone Age.4 It determined the transition from hunting and gathering to agriculture and settlement. The Neolithic revolution favored the development of sedentary societies
based on villages and towns, which radically modified their surrounding environment using irriga-
tion and food storage technologies. The size of human groupings rose significantly. Cooperation
began to extend beyond clans of family members. The Neolithic revolution determined consistent
improvement in both Physical and Social Technologies and brought about the production of a sur-
plus of foodstuffs. The food in excess was stored and carried by stone and wicker containers first,
then ceramic vessels. The first ceramic containers were produced by drying clay under the sun; then
the fire was used to “cook” them. Clay was more functional than the other materials. Our ingenious
ancestors devised the wheel to build better vessels more quickly. The principle of the wheel was
also applied to the cart, and this novelty made transport and transfer of supplies easier. There is
evidence that around 5000 BC, not only stones but even metals, such as gold and copper, found
3 The term serendipity come from the Persian fairy tale The Three Princes of Serendip, whose heroes “were always making discoveries, by accidents and sagacity, of things they were not in quest of”. An inquisitive human mind can turn accidents into discoveries.
4 The Stone Age is the first period of a Three-Age System proposed by the Danish archeologist Christian Jürgensen Thomsen (1788–1865) for classifying ancient societies and prehistoric stages of progress. After the Stone Age, the Bronze and Iron Ages followed.
Introduction
5
in their native states, were used to obtain beautiful jewels and tools (Brostow and Hagg Lobland
2017). The malleability of gold allowed it to be formed into very thin sheets, and its early uses
were only decorative (Boyle 1987). Initially, copper was chipped into small pieces, then hammered
and ground with techniques similar to those used for bones and stones. However, when copper is
hammered, it becomes brittle, and it easily breaks. Maybe, by serendipity or after many attempts,
someone found out the solution to the fragility of copper by annealing it, or dropping pieces of it
in a campfire and then hammering them. Maybe, again by serendipity, ancient potters, whose clay
firing furnaces could reach very high temperatures (around 1100°C–1200°C), discovered that from
certain green friable stones (i.e., malachite) copper smelting was possible. This event initiated the
metallurgical technique. When different ores were blended in the smelting process, it created alloys,
such as bronze, which flowed more smoothly than pure copper, was stronger after forming, and was
easy to cast. Bronze was much more useful than copper as farm implements and weapons. A further
improvement was gained around 1000 BC with the introduction and manipulation of iron.
As you notice from Figure 1.3, the first stage of the human scientific journey was very long,
lasting a few millions of years. During this extended period, humankind developed the written
language. The need of writing came from trade, particularly active since the 3000 BC, in the so-
called Fertile Crescent.5 The trade of goods also promoted the formulation of the first mathemati-
cal principles. In fact, we know that Egyptians started to make some operations of calculus in the
2nd millennium BC, for measuring amounts of foodstuffs and partitioning goods among people
(Merzbach and Boyer 2011). Similarly, geometry was formulated for facing practical goals,
such as measuring fields after the periodic flooding of Nile or designing and building pyramids.
Babylonians gained some astronomical insights always for practical purposes, such as traveling
across deserts and seas and dispelling fears by making predictions and horoscopes.
1.1.2 The “PhilosoPhical Period”
A revolutionary intellectual event occurred in the sixth century BC in Greece: the birth of philoso-
phy. The word philosophy derives from the Greek “φίλος σωφία” that means “love of wisdom.” It
refers to the attempts at answering foundational questions about the universe and the role of human
beings in it through reflection. In fact, the philosophical answers are searched by reasoning, i.e., by
using rational logic ( λóγος) of the human mind (Snell 1982). The first philosophers were active in
the oriental Greek colonies, in Asia Minor; then, in occidental Greek colonies, i.e., in the South of
Italy, and finally, they spread also in the motherland. In Greece and its colonies, the right cultural,
religious, socio-economic, and political conditions existed for the birth of philosophy (Reale 1987).
The Homeric poems, The Iliad and The Odyssey, along with the poems written by Hesiod, such
as the Theogony and the Works and Days, and the gnomic poetry, all composed between the late
eighth and the sixth century BC, have been the cultural roots of the Greek philosophy. They molded
some of the intellectual and spiritual pillars of ancient Greece (see Figure 1.4). These pillars are (Jaeger 1965): (1) love of harmony and right proportion; (2) etiological vision of reality, consisting of
the search for the causes of any event; (3) the will of having a global vision of reality; and (4) justice
as the supreme value. Other spiritual pillars were built on the religious beliefs of ancient Greece.
When we talk about Greek religion, we must distinguish the public religion from the mystery reli-
gions, such as the Orphism (Reale 1987). In the public religion, gods are natural forces or human
features embodied in idealized human beings. For example, Poseidon was the god of the Sea; Zeus
was the god of sky and thunder; Athena was the goddess of wisdom and Aphrodite was that of love.
5 The Fertile Crescent is a term proposed by the archaeologist James Henry Breasted at the University of Chicago in 1906.
It refers to a crescent-shaped region located in Western Asia, including Mesopotamia, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, the West Bank, and Egypt. It was a region so fertile to be defined the cradle of civilization. It saw the development of many of the earliest human civilizations and the birth of writing and wheel.
6
Untangling Complex Systems
Harmony and
right proportions
Etiology
Global view of reality
Justice
Naturalism
Body and soul
FIGURE 1.4 Intellectual and spiritual pillars inspiring Greek philosophy.
The Greek public religion was a form of “naturalism.” It was spurring humans to follow their nature
and was considering the bodily death as the final stage of the existence for every person. The public
religion was not considered as satisfactory by many Greeks, who turned to the mystery religions.
One of these was Orphism that introduced the relevant concept of the human soul as divine and
immortal. Human souls were doomed to live in a “grievous circle” of successive bodily lives. The
release from the “grievous circle” was guaranteed by an ascetic way of life (repressing some instinc-
tive natural tendencies) along with secret initiation rites. Greek religion did not have holy books,
conceived as the product of divine revelation. The poets were the vehicles of diffusion for their reli-
gious beliefs and a sacerdotal class, keeper of dogmas, did not exist. This lack of dogmas and their
guardians left wide berth for free intellectual inquiry. The ancient Greeks, especially those living
in the colonies, also experienced important political freedom. In the seventh and sixth centuries
BC, Greece had a considerable socio-economic transformation. It changed from a country based
predominantly on agriculture to one where the craft industry and commerce developed to an ever-
increasing extent. The new class of tradesmen and artisans gradually gained considerable economic
